Latin America

Yesterday, Secretary Clinton led the U.S. delegation to the biennial conference on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, the first time the United States has participated since 1999. Clinton declared to representatives of about 150 countries, "We are glad to be back."

Of the treaty that her husband signed but has yet to be ratified by the U.S. Senate, Clinton said, "To put it plainly, we support this treaty because it strengthens the prospects of a peaceful, stable and secure world, and would enhance the security of the American people."

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon mentioned Clinton while praising the United States, stating, "The participation of the United States led by Secretary of State Clinton for the first time demonstrates the commitment of the United States to work toward its ratification of the treaty."

Meanwhile, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez decided to criticize Clinton. He totally went off on her yesterday in a CNN interview. On Sept. 15, Clinton had expressed concern about Venezuela's arms purchases and how they might spark an arms race in the region. Saying that his country had one of the smallest defense budgets in the region, Chávez declared, "She is totally lost. … You should be concerned. She has lost her way. She is totally wrong." So much for reaching out.

Clinton, of course, doesn't let those kind of comments phase her in the least. She's got more more important things to think about -- including the closing address she's delivering today at her husband Bill's Clinton Global Initiative annual meeting. Referring to his presidency, when wife Hillary did charitable work, Bill told the Associated Press, "Here we are at the later stages of our lives when we switch roles."

One random note: A person in Salt Lake City thinks Clinton should resign. Whatever.

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A briefing of Clinton news:

•Afghanistan: U.S. State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said Secretary Clinton has "zero tolerance" for the lewd, disgusting behavior of private security guards at the U.S. Embassy in Afghanistan.

•Honduras: Today in Washington Clinton meets with Manuel Zelaya, the ousted Honduran president seen at left a few weeks before he was removed from office. If the State Department formally declares that his ouster was a coup, then U.S. foreign aid to Honduras will be suspended.

•Chelsea: August passed, and contrary to rumors, daughter Chelsea did not get married, even though the Washington Post provided instructions on how to have a secret wedding.

•Bill: No. 7 on Politico's list of "21 Things You Can't Say to the President on His Summer Vacation": "President [Bill] Clinton called and says he is willing to fly to Afghanistan to investigate allegations of wild parties in Kabul. He’s called four times, in fact."

•Op-ed: A fan of Madam Secretary has written an op-ed, "Clinton Has Her Own Problems," that discusses, among other things, the secretary of state's difficulties in filling vacant State Department positions due to the onerous security-clearance process.

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It looks like Secretary Clinton will finally be back in the office tomorrow, after her well-deserved vacation. Topping her agenda is an important meeting: a discussion of the Honduras situation with Manuel Zelaya, who was ousted from the Honduran presidency on June 28.

The State Department has already stopped most visa services in Honduras, and $135 million in U.S. aid for Honduras is in jeopardy.

Cuban President Raúl Castro delivered a defiant message to Secretary Clinton Saturday in a speech to the Cuban National Assembly. Annoyed that Clinton has said on multiple occasions that Cuba must make changes in order to have better relations with the United States, Castro declared:

I have to say, with all due respect to Mrs. Clinton … they didn't elect me president to restore capitalism in Cuba, nor to hand over the revolution. I was elected to defend, maintain and continue perfecting socialism, not destroy it."

Castro also reminded Clinton that the only torture in Cuba was in the United States' Guantánamo Bay detention center:

Yes, there was torture, and it is on a part of the Cuban territory even though it was not made by us. … That is why we said with all respect, to Ms Hillary Clinton, Secretary of State of that country, that if she wants to discuss about everything, we will discuss on everything, about here, but about there too."

Clinton is working hard to improve U.S. policies toward Cuba. Last April, she announced that the United States was lifting travel and gift restrictions on Americans who have relatives in Cuba. She also announced a review of U.S. policy toward Cuba. But you don't get something for nothing; understandably, Clinton wants changes from Cuba in exchange for improved relations. (And if Cuba really wants those tourists, it should seriously consider change.)

Meanwhile, Fidel Castro says Clinton should get a Nobel Prize.

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Secretary Clinton has helped usher in a breakthrough on the crisis in Honduras. After meeting with ousted Honduran President Manuel Zelaya yesterday, Clinton announced that Costa Rican President Óscar Arias -- winner of the 1987 Nobel Peace Prize for working on peace accords in Central America -- will mediate the conflict in Honduras.

When asked in a press briefing whether Zelaya should be restored to power, Clinton said:

Now that we have a mediation process that we hope can begin shortly, I don’t want to prejudge what the parties themselves will agree to. There are many different issues that will have to be discussed and resolved. But I think it’s fair to let the parties themselves, with President Arias’ assistance, sort out all of these issues.

Regarding nonhumanitarian U.S. aid that is conditioned on Honduras's remaining a democracy, Clinton said:

[W]e have paused in the aid that we think would be affected by the letter of the statute. There is humanitarian aid, and that is a concern for us – the well-being of the people of Honduras. But we’ve made the decision to basically pause on any further aid.

The breakthrough with bringing Arias in as mediator is a peacemaking achievement Clinton can add to her many accomplishments.

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Secretary Clinton will be meeting with Manuel Zelaya, the ousted Honduran president, this afternoon in what will be the highest level of interaction between Zelaya and the Obama administration since his June 28 ouster.

What will Clinton say to him? Senior U.S. officials declined to tell the Washington Post what Clinton would say, other than reiterating the need for democratic and constitutional order in Honduras.

Clinton could threaten to pull the plug on U.S. aid, which is conditioned on Honduras's maintaining its democratic system. Last week she implied that if the rule of law was reestablished in a "relatively short period of time," aid to the country wouldn't be in jeopardy. More than a week has passed since the coup, and two Zelaya supporters were killed Sunday, so it doesn't look as if Honduras is meeting the conditions for aid.

The Obama administration still recognizes Zelaya as the official president of Honduras (and not Roberto Micheletti, the de facto president), so perhaps the U.S. government foresees Zelaya's return to power. Clinton could perhaps suggest that he be returned to power if he meets certain demands, such as behaving lawfully and in line with the Honduran Constitution. Large chunks of Honduran society don't want him back as president, though (not surprising given that he was taking illegal steps in an attempt to stay in office), so that idea probably won't go over well in Honduras.

Clinton can insist on democratic and constitutional order, but how do you operationalize that? Should Zelaya be reinstated (because was unlawfully removed in a coup)? If he is reinstated, should Hondurans then go through the official democratic process of removing him from office if they so strongly want him out? Does it make sense to reinstate a man who didn't want to follow the rule of law? Does it make sense to recognize a new president who didn't follow the rule of law to get to power?

Clinton has a lot to think about between now and her afternoon meeting.

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Secretary Clinton said the situation in Honduras "has evolved into a coup," but said the U.S. government was "withholding any formal legal determination." Basically, it was a coup, but not really, she's saying.

It's a tricky situation for Clinton (seen above in Honduras on June 2). If the United States formally labels the expulsion of Manuel Zelaya as a coup, then Honduras could lose U.S. aid that is conditioned on the country's maintaining itself as a democracy. That aid includes a five-year $215 million Millennium Challenge grant and a proposed $68 million in development and military aid for 2010.

When asked about whether aid would be cut, Clinton responded:

Much of our assistance is conditioned on the integrity of the democratic system. But if we were able to get to a status quo that returned to the rule of law and constitutional order within a relatively short period of time, I think that would be a good outcome.

An even more trickier question is whether Zelaya, the ousted president, should be returned to power. When asked about it, Clinton said, "We haven't laid out any demands that we are insisting on."

It might not look so great to say Zelaya should be reinstated given that he was taking illegal steps in an attempt to stay in office. The de facto referendum he wanted was declared illegal by Honduras's Supreme Court, and it was also opposed by Honduras's Congress, nearly all political parties, the press, the business community, and electoral authorities.

Plus, the United States might not want Zelaya returned to power unconditionally. John Negroponte, former U.S. ambassador to Honduras, told the Washington Post, "I think [Clinton] wants to preserve some leverage to try and get Zelaya to back down from his insistence on a referendum."

Between Honduras, Iraq, Iran, and a broken elbow, it looks like Madame Secretary has a lot on her plate.

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While Secretary Clinton was recuperating from her broken elbow and resuming her "aggressive schedule" this weekend, she issued remarks condemning the ousting of Honduran President Manuel Zelaya by the military, saying the action taken against him "should be condemned by all" and calling on Hondurans to "commit themselves to resolve political disputes peacefully and through dialogue." (For analysis about the situation in Honduras, read today's FP Argument, "How to Fix the Mess in Honduras.")

Sounds kinda like the type of statement many of you voted for regarding what Clinton should be saying about the situation in Iran.

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